Changing the Game was referenced in Trading Bases as a source of understanding the concept of value in gambling. Trading Bases caught my attention and I wanted to dig deeper. I actually started reading this book right after Trading Bases, but it took me a while to finish. And a while to blog about it.
The beginning of the book is for the novice gambler as the author explains basic terminology. The most annoying part was how William Hall constantly pitches his "game analysis system" that he is selling. He references it every other sentence (that may be a bit sarcastic, but it is probably every paragraph). Very annoying. That is the reason I put down the book for a few weeks. Frankly, I didn't understand why anyone would want to read a sales pitch.
The last third of the book gets into the good stuff. Value is how much return you will get for the riskiness of your bet. A way to think about it is the difference between what you think the price should be and what the line is. The bigger the difference, the more value. Even if you think you can pick a winner, it may not be financially worth it. The author actually does a great job explaining this concept. He digs much deeper into this, mentioning distributions (Poisson, anyone?) and other mathematical references. Exactly what I was looking for.
Frankly I wouldn't suggest this book to anyone. I think it is misleading in how easy it portrays making money from betting. It truly is a sales pitch. However, I am glad I read it. Once I finish studying for my next exam, which is in two weeks, I'm going to spend some time pondering all of this gambling stuff. For my own sake and for a friend who is getting into gambling. The concept of value and predictive analysis is right up my alley. Don't be surprised to see a few more gambling or investing books on the blog in the summer.
My rating for Changing the Game: 1 star out of 5. Get it here!
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