I started this book about two years ago, but only made it half way through. Shortly after I started reading it, someone at work recommended it. Still, I did not finish it. I decided to bring this to the beach and read from start to end.
The basic premise is focused on prediction failures and why forecasters often get things wrong. Essentially, getting distracted by the "noise" and losing focus of the "signal". The book covers all sorts of topics: the economy, weather, political races, earthquakes, poker, vaccines/diseases, gambling, the stock market, chess, global warming and terrorism. Point is, you can apply forecasting to any area, as long as you distinguish between the signal and the noise.
Overall, I felt like I already agreed with the theory he presented. His applications are interesting and stimulating to think about. He makes a strong case for using Bayes Theorem (which makes me think about exams). Otherwise, I'm not really sure he offers many solutions, other than to be aware of the noise. I liked the ending about unknown unknowns, as that is a real danger.
Some background on Nate Silver, which I knew about before reading this book. His blog FiveThirtyEight is pretty popular, and somehow he has a relationship with ESPN where his articles are promoted. His initial claim to fame was developing PECOTA, which was later picked up by Baseball Prospectus. He's also very good at predicting and analyzing elections. Basically, he's found a way to capitalize on using statistics in everyday life.
My rating for The Signal and the Noise: 2.5 stars out of 5. Get it here!
P.S. Another one of my tidbits. I saw an article that concluded people over age 50 who read at least 3.5 hours a week lived on average 2 years longer than those who did not read at all. The sarcastic part of me loves this kinda thing and will obviously promote it on my blog, but at the same time I am well aware the differences between correlation and causation. Anyhow, it's a fun fact : )
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