The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

I started this book about two years ago, but only made it half way through. Shortly after I started reading it, someone at work recommended it. Still, I did not finish it. I decided to bring this to the beach and read from start to end.

The basic premise is focused on prediction failures and why forecasters often get things wrong. Essentially, getting distracted by the "noise" and losing focus of the "signal". The book covers all sorts of topics: the economy, weather, political races, earthquakes, poker, vaccines/diseases, gambling, the stock market, chess, global warming and terrorism. Point is, you can apply forecasting to any area, as long as you distinguish between the signal and the noise.

Overall, I felt like I already agreed with the theory he presented. His applications are interesting and stimulating to think about. He makes a strong case for using Bayes Theorem (which makes me think about exams). Otherwise, I'm not really sure he offers many solutions, other than to be aware of the noise. I liked the ending about unknown unknowns, as that is a real danger.

Some background on Nate Silver, which I knew about before reading this book. His blog FiveThirtyEight is pretty popular, and somehow he has a relationship with ESPN where his articles are promoted. His initial claim to fame was developing PECOTA, which was later picked up by Baseball Prospectus. He's also very good at predicting and analyzing elections. Basically, he's found a way to capitalize on using statistics in everyday life.

My rating for The Signal and the Noise: 2.5 stars out of 5. Get it here!

P.S. Another one of my tidbits. I saw an article that concluded people over age 50 who read at least 3.5 hours a week lived on average 2 years longer than those who did not read at all. The sarcastic part of me loves this kinda thing and will obviously promote it on my blog, but at the same time I am well aware the differences between correlation and causation. Anyhow, it's a fun fact : )

When Breathe Becomes Air by Paul Kalanithi

Searching for books to read, this one jumped out at me. A man sacrifices a significant amount of his life striving towards a worthy, major accomplishment only to be met with a terminal cancer diagnosis as he approaches the finish line. Paul Kalanithi writes about his journey - wanting to understand life and death, becoming a neurosurgeon (aka a brain surgeon), and then finding out his time on earth will be cut short due to stage IV lung cancer.

The first half of the book is about his journey to become a neurosurgeon. The second half is about facing cancer and dealing with it. It's very interesting to hear how he was giving orders one day and then receiving them the next day. The book ends sort of abruptly, but it's understandable because Paul passes away (not a spoiler since this is on the book cover flap). The epilogue is really, really sad as his wife writes about Paul's last few days.

I didn't like the forward, nor did I like the references to historical literature and authors. I get that he has a background in English and writing, but I thought it slowed down the narrative sometimes. Everything else about this book is great. The author's storytelling and writing is great. I cannot emphasize that enough. Even though the book talks about death, it is really about life and living.

If you know me, you know that I love memoirs. I strongly related to the first part of Paul's story...he made sacrifices and spent so much time to become a doctor. I have spent so much time and made sacrifices to become an actuary. As I finish up my exams (more on that in a future blog), this book made me pause and think about my life. What would I do if I only had a few months to live? I don't consider it a dark thing to think about; rather, it puts things in perspective and really makes me want to enjoy every day.

Favorite Quote: "This is not the end. Or even the beginning of the end. This is just the end of the beginning."

My rating for When Breathe Becomes Air: 4.5 stars out of 5. Get it here!

P.S. Another tidbit. I'm adding a new feature to the blog called "Blast from the Past". Essentially I'll be highlighting a review from the past. It'll update each week with a different past post. I figure there are a lot of good reviews from over the last five years. Plus it'll be a nice way to bring new readers up to speed on books I've read in the past.

Luckiest Girl Alive by Jessica Knoll

Luckiest Girl Alive was recommended to me with the advice to not look up anything about the book. I have to admit I would say the same thing if someone else wanted to read this book. The main character, Ani, has a shocking past. On the surface she appears put together with a fancy job in New York city with a breadwinning husband. But things happened during her high school years that still privately haunt her.

The first few stories Ani shares are not too surprising. As the book progressed, I became shocked that this is how the story turned. I did not see it coming at all, especially the ending. It literally hits you out of nowhere, as the chapters alternate between Ani's current life and her high school years.

At the beginning, it was easy to root for Ani. In the middle, I began to feel bad and sympathize with her. Towards the end, it was hard for me to say if I was a fan of her or not. That might sound harsh, but I feel like Ani drifts away from this innocent little girl we met at the beginning. I closed the book with mixed emotions about her.

Tough blog to write without giving anything away, especially when I'm just getting back into the flow of things. I'd say this works if you're looking for something to read on the beach, but I have a feeling there's better stuff out there.

My rating for Luckiest Girl Alive: 2.5 stars out of 5. Get it here!

P.S. I have a bunch of random stuff to share in the coming weeks. I think I'll use the "p.s." space to do it...it would be cool if I had a name for it, something like "Nick's Weekly Tidbit" (although that is NOT a cool name). I finished reading Luckiest Girl Alive before heading to Delaware for vacation. I'm proud to say I finished four books on the beach, which means lots of reviews coming up!