Sunday, July 7, 2013

Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer


I was never really into horse racing until a few years ago when a friend brought me up to Saratoga. I thought the experience was a lot of fun. Since then, I've been multiple times every summer. My friend has taken it to a whole new level - he's going to be a part of a TV series on handicapping horse races. Naturally, I thought I would do a bit of reading to get a deeper understanding of the sport. When deciding where to start, I picked up a book that was mentioned in Trading Bases as the bible of horse racing: Picking Winners.

I'm going to offer a disclaimer by saying if you aren't interested in wagering on horse races then you'll find the book boring. Start by going to a track, then maybe you'll find the book useful. I loved how Beyer explains simple concepts. He quickly escalates to more detail using examples and actual outcomes of races. He hits on all aspects of horse racing. He even adds in some humor which fits perfectly. The greatest takeaway of the book is the chapter on money management. In my opinion, that is 50% of the battle in trying to successfully wager, whether it be on horses or any other sport.

The most absurd part about Picking Winners is the fact it was written in 1975. Just about everything he wrote is still relevant today. The speed figures he came up with to measure horses against each other are now used in the Daily Racing Form programs. (You can check if you don't believe me. They're called the Beyer Speed Figures.) The one thing that I would like to see is an updated version with more commentary on the impact of computers, statistics, and predictive modeling. Incredibly, all of his analysis was done by hand and calculator.

My rating for Picking Winners: 4 stars out of 5. Get it here!

P.S. Still no computer. Within the next week I should be able to update these posts with pictures and links.

Updated on Saturday, July 13th (pictures, links, italics)

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